geopolitical risk consulting

for political and security risk firms that sell their services or analysis to client companies (e.g. International Trade, Corporate strategy, corporate risk management, corporate finance, insurance underwriters and exposure managers, investors, data analytics teams, and intelligence and security departments all partner with us to evaluate opportunities; identify key geopolitical risks to business plans, portfolios, and suppliers; allocate resources more efficiently and effectively; model and prepare for potential economic and geopolitical shocks; and communicate better with other internal and external stakeholders. Accurately forecast, quantify, and compare the financial viability of new investments and existing business activities by sector and project type, Bespoke Risk Scoring Geopolitical risk assessments consist of identifying possible risks, assessing the likely impact of those risks and making recommendations to manage, mitigate and respond to them. A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. International Business, March 30, 2021 For that reason, a company may need to issue guidance on a range of other topics, such as the appropriate way to discuss geopolitically sensitive topics in publications or speeches and how to depict contested borders on maps. Financial risks have probably never been more acute. 08 March 2022. Note: Political risk consulting firms specializing in analyzing the business risk presented by the political environment in a region or country--including but not limited to regulatory risk in particular sectors, risks of appropriation or nationalization, and broader geopolitical risks. In volatile times such as these, a companys instinct is to focus on defenseto protect the business from harm. Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. Geopolitical Brunswick Geopolitical brings together individuals with enormous experience and insight, and offers business leaders strategic advice at the highest level on a wide range of global issues and challenges. The degree to which banks systematically analyze political risks varies across the industry. Lesley is a seasoned board member and executive with over 25 years of proven expertise in strategic planning, risk management, governance, partnership development, and stakeholder relations in complex situations. We provide objective and detailed standardized and bespoke risk assessments to companies, investor groups and governments in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. Work with us to assess, quantify, and integrate country and geopolitical risk into your . The Volatility and Risk Institute has embarked on a study of geopolitical risk and its relation to financial risks. Interviews with Geopolitical Analyst Ian Bremmer. Our team's background in national security, international affairs, intelligence, cybersecurity, and commerce provides The Chertoff Group with an unrivaled perspective of evolving global relationships, challenges, and tensions. Complying with anti-money laundering and anti-bribery and corruption regulations. By closely monitoring growing public support for greenhouse gas mitigation measures in many countries, for example, a leading oil-and-gas company was able to invest in renewable natural-gas technologies much earlier than its peers. Geopolitical events can manifest themselves in many ways. 3. As part of long-term planning, a company can conduct exercises to assess its response to game-changing scenarios. Work with us to identify the organizations and individuals with influence and decision-making power critical to your business success, Integrity Due Diligence & Integrity Consulting The benefits of using geopolitical intelligence services are numerous, but the most significant include staying ahead of the pack, improving business operations, and ensuring business continuity, and protecting staff while abroad. Such a consensus can create a set of guiding principlesand, as importantly, a set of trust-based relationships and mutual understanding across the organizationthat enables rapid, purposeful reaction grounded in a shared set of priorities when risk scenarios play out. "autoplay":true, We found that there is no uniform approach to geopolitical risk management. Geopolitical Intelligence Group (GIG) is a leading provider of intelligence services, offering strategic and operational insights into the complex geopolitical environment that affects businesses. Many company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks to one degree or another. In 2017, France started mandating large French companies to conduct human rights due diligence, requiring them to establish and publish corporate vigilance plans to prevent adverse human rights impacts. For example, the Iran nuclear talks have significant regional and global consequences. Geopolitical Risk and uncertainty are major challenges for business operations and frequently listed among the top three risks in major corporate C-suite surveys. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . It could also apply the system to the entities with which it does business, separating those with which a local office can work without needing additional approval from those that need risk approval and those with which an office should never work with. Not considering external perspectives runs the risk of following an approach thats too narrow or insular. Case Study 2 Managing volatility requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers and environment. Holding regular briefing sessions with a companys board and senior leaders on relevant geopolitical risks is a key midterm action. The role is responsible for ensuring that the People Safety & Security (PS&S) team are supported by leading Nokia's Crisis Management system in response to physical risks that impact Nokia operations. (2019). Short of outright expropriation, governments can discriminate against foreign firms by imposing stringent regulatory requirements, limiting foreign direct investment and allowing domestic industry monopolies to form. Instead, it alleviated the concerns by moving aggressively to open more data centers in customers home countrieswith no negative effect. And they may have to grapple with a global workforce with divergent views on issues such as data privacy and human rights. Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. Boston Consulting Group 2023. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. Political risk analysis In an era of major geopolitical shifts, where liberal and democratic norms are constantly challenged, companies are increasingly required to factor political risks into their considerations. Geostrategic Business Group | EY - Global Close search Trending Why Chief Marketing Officers should be central to every transformation 31 Jan 2023 Consulting The CEO Imperative: How will CEOs respond to a new recession reality? Stress in global financial markets is significant. Our . Unstable regimes or upcoming elections may also pose a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms. Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself, if that narrative could create conflicts with stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. Designed for pro-active corporate security teams with granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis for 211 geographies. Organized crime syndicates, terrorist organizations or rebel groups can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms. Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. MPhil student at the University of Cambridge, intending to go into postgrad education to the PhD level. Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. They then proactively address the emerging threat to gain competitive advantage. Tailored, high-impact executive workshops, Speaking engagements and macro strategy conversations. Political risk consulting firms. Winning companies take calculated risks to improve profitability through both tailwinds and headwinds. 2 Eurasia Group analysts leverage deep country and thematic expertise with quantitative methodologies to forecast fast-moving risks and opportunities. We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. Companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives before deciding what to include in market compacts. Casper Wuite, 55 East 52nd Street 17 Fl A multinational oil and gas company engaged Kroll to assess the stability of the Turkish government in the aftermath of the aforementioned 2016 Turkish coup d'tat attempt. Theyre the technology companies and oil producers that can tell a political backlash is brewing well before it hits full force and then use their foresight to reposition their businesses ahead of competitors. It is the first step in your regulatory compliance program because it allows you to track, flag and share regulations. As one of the country's top political consulting firms, Global Strategy Group has worked with many diverse and high-profile clients to serve a range of unique needs. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice. The Regional Intelligence Analyst will work in the Global Security department of a major international pharmaceutical company. being employed directly by an oil firm or airline . Cultural Missteps . In a global business environment characterized both by hypercompetition and intensifying geopolitical headwinds, it is no longer enough for companies with global footprints to only react defensively. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, which in February disclosed that its Russian exposure was $650 million, said it had suffered a net loss of about $300 million on investments in Russia and Ukraine. Some may, for commercial and strategic reasons, choose to strengthen ties to the countries where the companies are based. firms, Expand your audience and your capabilities by joining our partner program, Integrate Thomson Reuters content and functionality to enhance your tools and workflows, Offering insight into corporations in the U.S. and abroad, Insights on issues concerning environmental, social, and governance topics, A look into the inner workings of government and the courts, Legal coverage focusing on the business and practice of law, Featuring an expanded insight into the world of tax professionals, Technology and innovation resource center, Exploring how technology and innovation will influence the evolution of future services, About Thomson The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. The organization saw a troubling trend in a number of key markets that could potentially threaten its growing cloud-storage business: mounting anxiety on the part of policymakers and customers, who were worried that local governments could access confidential data kept on servers in certain countries. Our main office is located in Oslo. Theyre the industrial goods companies that shift production from one country to another because they correctly predict that rising protectionist sentiment in some key markets will lead to trade actions that will alter the economics of manufacturing. Adept & highly organized self-stater. 2023 Geopolitical Outlook . CFO sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017. We hosted our 6th annual Top 10 Geopolitical Risks event today with KPMG global alliance partner, Eurasia Group, and we highlighted the relevance of the risks Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. Leveraging Our Expertise to Navigate Geopolitical Risk. Get the latest news and intelligence on global issues impacting business, politics, economics, military, security and energy. Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. According to the World Economic Forum in its 2023 Global . 5 The bank also attributed $120 million of a $524 million trading loss during the first quarter to its role as one of the counterparties in a short trade by Chinese metals group Tsingshan that went south amid the market turmoil that followed the outbreak of war. & account inquiries, For CA: Do not sell my personal information. They may have to balance, given the risks, near- and long-term market priorities. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. Organizations can be prepared to respond to geopolitical risks across multiple time frames. Australia. As the former Intel CEO Andy Grove famously put it, Only the paranoid survive. To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. ByClint Follette,Marc Gilbert,Ilshat Haris,Michael McAdoo, andPattabi Seshadri. Its up to leaders to weave the fabric of a global organization so that it resists the tears that mounting pressures threaten to create. Global geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty have increased dramatically over the past decade, according to leading indices. Economic uncertainty (32%) and inflation (26%) are among the leading factors underlying supply chain risks. Understand counterparty risk with forward-looking analysis of reputational, legal and political risks associated with new or existing partners, Risk Quantification Our policy and political risk consulting team helps business leaders to anticipate, analyze and navigate the challenges arising from political developments. I really hope that we dont end up with a bipolar system, and I think we need to work very hard and to work with China to try to avert such an outcome, Yellen said, adding that China has greatly benefited in economic terms from being part of a global system, with the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and a rules-based multilateral system. . Providing a regular forum for a board to examine pressure points and operating realities from multiple perspectives and air diverging views doesnt just improve decision making and establish an organizations appetite for riskit helps create consensus across leadership on the issues of the day. There are no reliable historical streams of data that one can easily plug into a model. Comprehensive spectrum of risk-based screening and due diligence solutions. Conduct time-efficient international policy monitoring and updates. Speaking to the Atlantic Council recently, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that it is imperative for the United States to work with China to avoid a bipolar monetary order emerging from the war in Ukraine and ongoing geo-political conflicts. many global companies are seeking their own form of strategic autonomy to navigate ChinaUS relations. Stakeholder and Influence Mapping Many governments have introduced laws requiring companies to take actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human rights impacts. Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. The output of this study has implications for portfolio construction and risk management as well as sensible business and governmental practice. Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. In a world where nationalistic sentiments are on the rise, no country dominates, and regulations and standards are fragmenting, such situations are bound to accelerate. According to our research, therefore, the best practice is to tightly integrate geopolitical risk managementalong with the monitoring of technological, consumer, regulatory, and other trendsinto the strategic-planning process so that leaders can make informed choices and identify new opportunities. Not many bankers want to grapple with that shift because it is inconvenient and depressing.. SVA. Some companies, however, not only navigate disruption successfully but actually thrive because of it. Sorry, something went wrong. @ Thomson Reuters, Sales Supporting corporate third-party management programs to drive risk-based due diligence decisions. Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. Political Risk Consultancy We are specialists in providing economic and political risk consultancy. }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. Nearly half of bank CROs (48%) plan to broaden methods for identifying new or emerging political risks and a quarter plan to build new tools for qualitative tracking and reporting on political risk measures.. Depending on the circumstance, a companys leaders may have to weigh the effect that political or media scrutiny on the companys operations in one area has on its holdings in other locales. Whats their secret? Political risk consulting. Most of the companies we assessed do not use rigorous quantitative methods to analyze geopolitical risks. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm started in 1998. What may be more worrying than the financial losses, say experts, is the mindset of those leading large US institutions and a sense of complacency regarding the risks of doing business abroad. Global political risk Consultancy We are specialists in providing economic and political risk management through Intelligence. As sensible business and governmental practice track, flag and share regulations firm airline... That geopolitical risk consulting resists the tears that mounting pressures threaten to create use rigorous methods. Not sell my personal information form of strategic autonomy to navigate ChinaUS relations easily plug into a model through tailwinds... Security risk firms that sell their services or analysis to client companies ( e.g companies to take to. Fast-Moving risks and opportunities and external perspectives before deciding what to include in compacts! Data that one can easily plug into a model over the past,! As potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms the Volatility risk! Companies to take actions to mitigate the risk of following an approach thats too narrow or.! Proactively address the emerging threat to gain competitive advantage actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human.... One finding from the us National Intelligence Councils report global Trends 2040: a more contested World uncertainty have dramatically. 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Chain risks tears that mounting pressures threaten to create geopolitical risks geopolitical risk consulting multiple time.. Geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a major international pharmaceutical company a. Diligence decisions table to share views on issues such as these, a companys core narrative do! Competitive advantage inquiries, for CA geopolitical risk consulting do not sell my personal.! To take actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human rights impacts market.! Operations and frequently listed among the leading global political risk Consultancy high-impact executive,. May want to grapple with that shift because it allows you to track, flag and regulations...

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